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HIRI’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit, held in Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30, focused on economic conditions, customer behavior, AI, project spending and retail channels. HIRI forecast that the home improvement products market would grow 2.5% in current dollars in 2026 but contract 1.5% after inflation.
The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit brought industry leaders to Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30 to discuss economic pressures, changing customer behavior and artificial intelligence’s role in renovation decisions. The meeting’s market outlook pointed to 2.5% growth in current dollars for home improvement products in 2026, while the market was forecast to shrink 1.5% after inflation.
Sessions covered five themes: macroeconomics, the customer journey, data and market research, project spending, and sales channels. Speakers examined how inflation, housing affordability, mortgage rates and incomes affect homebuilding and homebuying. Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis at the National Association of Home Builders, said the median age of a first-time homebuyer has reached 40, compared with 29 in 1981.
HIRI’s Dave King joined Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at OpenBrand, and Michael Zdinak, director at S&P Global, for a discussion of factors affecting buyers. The summit also reviewed contractor sentiment. Grant Farnsworth, president of The Farnsworth Group, presented results from the organizations’ Q2 2026 Quarterly Contractor Business Sentiment Tracker and the Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3. The index put contractors’ confidence in getting business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10.
AI featured in sessions on the renovation customer journey. Houzz senior vice president of marketing Liza Hausman presented company research indicating that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation and that 25% of renovation dollars are associated with households using AI to help. Those figures describe the research presented at the summit; the source material does not provide further details on the study’s sample or methods.
Inflation Changes the Market Picture
The difference between growth in current dollars and a decline after inflation gives businesses two distinct signals: sales value may rise while the amount of purchasing power represented by that spending falls. HIRI’s forecast suggests that nominal growth is not the same as real expansion, a distinction relevant to manufacturers and retailers planning prices, inventory and investment.
The summit also connected the market outlook to decisions made by customers and contractors. An older first-time buyer profile and affordability pressures can affect when households purchase homes and begin projects. At the same time, the Houzz figures point to AI becoming part of some homeowners’ renovation research. For businesses, the practical question is not only whether customers are spending, but how economic uncertainty and new information tools shape their choices.
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Housing Costs and Customer Decisions
The summit’s discussions brought together indicators across the home improvement market rather than treating demand as a single measure. Housing affordability, mortgage rates and income influence homebuying, while contractor confidence offers a separate view of expected business. HIRI’s forecast adds an industry-wide spending outlook, distinguishing current-dollar growth from inflation-adjusted contraction.
Customer trust was another theme. Kevin O’Connor, host of This Old House, discussed how the brand seeks to remain relevant by educating audiences first, being accurate and avoiding a transactional approach. HIRI’s Dave King, presenting the institute’s Q3 2026 market report and forecast, told attendees that manufacturers should focus on reducing uncertainty in customer decisions in the coming quarter.
“Take uncertainty out of the customer’s decision in the coming quarter.”
— Dave King, HIRI
Research Details Still Missing
The summit recap provides the reported figures and forecasts but does not include the underlying methodology, sample sizes or detailed assumptions for the Houzz AI research, contractor index or HIRI market forecast. The AI-use figures therefore should not be read as a measure of all homeowners, and the contractor score reflects the named index rather than the entire industry.
The material also does not give regional breakdowns, product-category forecasts or a detailed explanation of which economic assumptions drive the 2026 outlook. The forecast is an estimate, not a final measure of market performance; actual results may differ as economic conditions and customer spending develop.
Watching Spending Into 2027
HIRI’s recommendation to manufacturers was to reduce friction and uncertainty for customers in the coming quarter. Businesses and readers will be able to compare the summit’s forecast with later market data as 2026 progresses and the industry looks toward growth prospects in 2027. The recap does not identify a date for a follow-up forecast or specify additional summit announcements.
Key Questions
When and where was HIRI’s 2026 summit held?
The Home Improvement Insights Summit took place in Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30, 2026.
What did HIRI forecast for the home improvement products market?
HIRI forecast 2.5% growth in current dollars in 2026 and a 1.5% decline after inflation.
What did the summit report about AI and renovation?
Houzz’s research, as presented by Liza Hausman, indicated that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation and that 25% of renovation dollars are in households using AI to help. The recap does not provide the study’s methodology.
How confident were contractors about future business?
The Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3 2026 rated contractor confidence in getting business over the next six months at 8.2 out of 10.
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