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The National Retail Federation’s annual survey found that 56% of holiday shoppers say the economy will affect their spending plans. Many expect to seek sales, compare prices online and use coupons, while shoppers remain divided between starting early and waiting for Thanksgiving weekend deals.
More than half of U.S. holiday shoppers say the state of the economy will affect their spending plans this season, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual consumer survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics. Among those consumers, 43% plan to shop for sales more often, 31% expect to comparison shop online more often and 29% plan to use coupons more often, signaling that price and value are central to their approach.
The survey found that 91% of U.S. adults plan to celebrate winter holidays, including Christmas, Hanukkah or Kwanzaa. Shopping timelines vary: 43% of holiday shoppers said they planned to start browsing and buying before November, close to the 42% who said so last year. Among early shoppers, half said they start early to spread out their budgets, while 37% cited prices and promotions they did not want to miss.
Waiting is also linked to price-conscious planning. Of shoppers who intend to begin in November or December, 46% said they expect to find the best prices and promotions during those months. And 64% of consumers said they are likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their shopping, compared with 63% last year. The findings suggest that an early start does not necessarily mean shoppers will complete most purchases early.
Consumers plan to shop across several channels. Online shopping leads at 53%, followed by grocery stores and discount stores, each at 43%, and department stores at 42%. The survey figures describe stated intentions; they do not establish how much shoppers will ultimately spend or whether plans will change during the season.
How Shoppers Are Managing Budgets
The results matter to households because shopping calendars and purchasing habits are being shaped by efforts to control costs. Sales, online price comparisons and coupons are among the specific strategies respondents say they will use. Starting early may let some shoppers spread expenses across more weeks, while waiting may give others access to promotions they expect later in the season.
For retailers, the survey points to demand for value across both early-season shopping and major promotional periods. NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights Allison Zeller said retailers are responding to budget priorities with products, promotions and shopping experiences intended to help shoppers find value. That is the industry’s characterization of its response; the survey does not measure whether those offers will lower consumers’ overall costs.
The findings also show why a single shopping pattern may not describe the season. Some consumers plan to browse and buy before November, while many say they expect to make most purchases over Thanksgiving weekend. Retailers may need to appeal to shoppers at different points rather than assume early browsing translates into early spending.
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Early Browsing, Later Deal-Seeking
The NRF survey indicates that the share planning to shop before November is broadly similar to the previous year: 43% this season versus 42% last year. The share likely to do most shopping during Thanksgiving weekend is also close to last year’s reported level, at 64% versus 63%. These comparisons suggest little change in those stated intentions, but they do not show what shoppers actually purchased.
The pattern described in the survey is a mix of early preparation and later promotion-seeking. Shoppers who start early may be spreading out their budgets, while some who wait say November and December bring the best deals. Prosper executive vice president of strategy Phil Rist said consumers are choosing when to shop based on what works for them, and that many still expect to use Thanksgiving weekend offers.
“With affordability top of mind, holiday shoppers are taking a thoughtful approach to spending, balancing value with preserving traditions that make the holiday season special.”
— Allison Zeller, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights
Plans Do Not Guarantee Purchases
The findings are about consumer intentions, not completed holiday spending. The source material does not provide the survey’s field dates, sample size, margin of error or detailed methodology, so the precision and representativeness of the estimates cannot be evaluated from the reported information alone. It also does not specify how much respondents expect to spend or how their budgets compare with last year.
It remains unclear whether planned deal-seeking will lead shoppers to spend less overall, shift purchases between retailers, or simply change when they buy. The survey also does not report how promotions or prices will develop through the season. Actual shopping behavior may differ from respondents’ plans.
Watch Spending Through Thanksgiving
The next practical test will be whether shoppers follow through on their stated plans as seasonal promotions arrive. Thanksgiving weekend is a key shopping period for the 64% who said they are likely to do most of their shopping then, while early shoppers may continue spreading purchases across the season. Retail sales data and follow-up consumer surveys can show whether those intentions translate into spending and which shopping channels benefit.
For now, the survey offers a snapshot of how consumers say they will approach the season: compare prices, seek promotions and choose a shopping schedule that fits their budgets. It does not forecast final sales or establish that affordability concerns will produce lower overall spending.
Key Questions
How many holiday shoppers say the economy will affect their plans?
Fifty-six percent of holiday shoppers surveyed said the state of the economy will affect their holiday spending plans, according to the NRF survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics.
What strategies do these shoppers plan to use?
Among shoppers who said the economy will affect their plans, 43% expect to shop for sales more often, 31% plan to comparison shop online more often and 29% expect to use coupons more often.
When do consumers plan to do most of their holiday shopping?
Sixty-four percent said they are likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their shopping. The survey measures intentions, not purchases already made.
Where do consumers plan to shop?
Online is the leading destination, with 53% planning to shop there. Grocery and discount stores each drew 43%, while 42% planned to shop at department stores.
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